Americas

In a US shortened week due to the Independence Day holiday, investors will focus on the June jobs report, expected to show continued labor market softening. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 129K, down from 139K in May, while the unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.2%, and wage growth is seen slowing to 0.3% from 0.4%. Labor market data will also include JOLTS job openings, projected to rise to 7.45 million, and the ADP report, expected to show an 80K increase in private employment, up from 37K. Among leading indicators, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show another contraction, while the ISM Services PMI may indicate a modest rebound. The trade balance is likely to show a wider deficit. Additional releases include the final S&P Global PMIs, the Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing and services indexes, construction spending, Challenger job cuts, and factory orders. Elsewhere in the Americas, key data will include S&P Global PMIs for Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, as well as trade figures for Canada and Brazil.

Europe

In Europe, flash inflation figures from the Euro Area, Germany, and Italy will take center stage. Headline inflation in the bloc is expected to accelerate to 2% from an eight-month low, while core inflation is seen steady at 2.3%. In Germany, consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month, and by 0.1% in Italy. Germany’s factory orders may show the first decline in four months, whereas retail sales are anticipated to rebound by 0.2% after a steep 1.1% fall. In Spain, manufacturing PMI could reach a five-month high, while Italy’s contraction is likely to ease. Services PMIs in both countries are expected to remain in expansion but lose some momentum. Labor market data will also be in focus, with jobless figures due from the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The Euro Area unemployment rate is seen holding at a record low of 6.2%. In the UK, the Bank of England will release mortgage lending and approvals data. Final Q1 GDP figures and Nationwide house price data are also due. Elsewhere, notable releases include France’s industrial production, Italy’s retail sales, and a flurry of Swiss data: KOF leading indicator, CPI, retail sales, and unemployment. In Poland, the central bank will decide on interest rates after holding steady at recent meetings. In Turkey, inflation is expected to ease to 35.2%, the lowest since November 2021. 

Asia and Australia

In China, the focus will be on manufacturing and services activity, with both the official NBS reports and the private Caixin survey scheduled for release. The data are expected to indicate that economic momentum remained sluggish in June, hovering near stagnation. In Japan, a busy data week includes industrial production—which is forecast to rebound with a 3.5% increase—the Bank of Japan’s Tankan business sentiment survey, expected to show a slight decline, as well as consumer confidence and household spending figures. In India, attention will turn to industrial production data, while in Australia, the trade deficit is likely to have narrowed modestly, and retail sales are expected to rise 0.3%, recovering from a 0.1% decline in April. Traders will also monitor PMI readings from major economies, as well as inflation and trade data from South Korea and Indonesia.