德国 - 制造业PMI

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.4 in December of 2019 from 44.1 in November, well below market expectations of 44.5. The reading pointed to a deeper contraction in factory activity, which has now shrunk for the 12th straight month. Order books were the weakest since January; export orders recorded the smallest drop in almost a year; outstanding business decreased sharply; and employment fell at the second-fastest rate for almost ten years. On the price front, input prices posted the steepest drop in almost four years and factory gate prices fell further. Finally, business sentiment among manufacturers weakened slightly, with the number of goods producers expecting output to all over the year ahead equal to those predicting a rise.

The IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 44.1 in November 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 43.8 and compared to October's final 42.1. It was the strongest reading since June, but still comfortably inside contraction territory. Output contracted for the tenth consecutive month, the longest sequence of decline since 2008-09, while both new orders and export sales fell at the slowest pace since January. In addition, buying levels and employment across the manufacturing sector dropped at softer rates, while business sentiment was in positive territory for the first time since June. On the price front, input costs fell by the most since March 2016, amid reductions in the price of chemicals, metals and plastics; and average factory gate charges decreased for the fifth month due to strong competition for new work.

The IHS Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI increased to 43.8 in November of 2019 from 42.1 in October, beating market expectations of 42.9, flash figures showed. The reading pointed to the eleventh straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector although the rate of decline slowed for the second month running to the weakest since August. Demand from abroad fell the least since January; and the decline in both order books and employment slowed. On the price front, factory gate prices dropped and purchase cost continued to fall sharply amid decreasing demand for raw materials and strong competition for new work among suppliers. Finally, business confidence improved.

The IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 42.1 in October 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 41.9 and compared to the previous month’s final 41.7. Still the latest reading pointed to the tenth month of contraction in the factory sector, as output dropped at a softer pace and new orders fell for the thirteenth consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the job shedding rate accelerated to its fastest pace since January 2010, as firms reported lower staffing number mostly attributed to a reduction in temporary workers. On the price front, input costs declined at the quickest rate since March 2016, mainly due to lower prices of metal components, raw steel and plastics, and output cost fell for the fourth successive month and at the sharpest pace since November 2009. Finally, expectations towards output recovered to a four-month high, still sentiment remained negative overall.

The IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI increased to 41.9 in October 2019 from 41.7 in the previous month, but below market expectations of 42, a preliminary estimate showed. The reading pointed to the tenth consecutive contraction in factory activity, as rates of decline in output and new orders eased slightly. New export orders dropped with the rate of decline sharp by historical standards, but slowed to the weakest since June. Meantime, job losses were recorded as staffing numbers went down to the steepest pace in nearly ten years amid the widespread paring of temporary and contract workers. On the price front, input prices fell at the sharpest pace since March 2016, mostly due to cost of raw materials and output prices dropped at the steepest rate in nearly ten years. Finally, manufacturers remained strongly pessimistic about the outlook, though expectations rebounded to the highest in four months.

The IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 41.7 in September 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 41.4 and compared to the previous month's final 43.5. Still, the latest reading pointed to the steepest contraction in the sector since June 2009 as output shrank the most since July 2012 and new orders dropped to the greatest extent since April 2009, leading to a further reduction in backlogs of work. In addition, the pace of staff shedding accelerated to the quickest since January 2010. On the price front, the decline in input costs was the second-quickest seen since April 2016 while output charges dropped the most in three-and-a-half years. Lastly, latest data revealed that manufacturers remained strongly pessimistic about the outlook in September. That said, expectations were slightly higher than the seven-year low seen in August.