美国 - 芝加哥联储全国活动指数

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.71 in October 2019 from -0.45 in the previous month and compared with market forecasts of -0.43. That was the lowest reading since April, as all four categories made negative contributions to the index. Production-related indicators contributed -0.55 to the CFNAI in October, down from -0.36 in September; and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category was little-changed at -0.03, compared to -0.04. In addition, employment-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the index, down from +0.01 in the previous month; while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category remained negative at -0.03, compared to -0.05.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.45 in September 2019 from an upwardly revised +0.15 in the previous month and compared with market forecasts of -0.37. Production-related indicators contributed -0.37, down from +0.19 in August; sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.02 from -0.01 in the prior month; and personal consumption and housing went down to -0.04 from a flat reading. Meantime, employment-related indicators contributed -0.02, up slightly from -0.03. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in September from 3.7 percent in August, but total nonfarm payrolls increased by 136,000 after rising by 168,000 in August.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.10 in August 2019 from a revised -0.41 in the previous month and well above market expectations of -0.35 as four categories of indicators that make up the index improved compared to July. Still, three subcategories made negative contributions: sales, orders, and inventories (-0.02 from -0.07); employment-related indicators (-0.02 from -0.05) and personal consumption and housing (-0.02 from -0.03). Only production-related indicators ended up the month in the positive territory (+0.16 from -0.26).

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.36 in July 2019, the lowest since April, from a revised 0.03 in the previous month. Production-related indicators contributed –0.25 to the CFNAI, down from +0.09 in June, and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category decreased to –0.05 from –0.01. Also, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked down to –0.06 from –0.05 in June; and employment-related indicators contributed –0.01, down slightly from a neutral value in June.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.02 in June 2019, little-changed from a revised -0.03 in the previous month and compared to market expectations of +0.10. Production-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in June, down from +0.08 in May, and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category decreased to -0.03 from +0.02. Also, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI was unchanged at -0.05 in June, while employment-related indicators contributed +0.06, up from -0.08 in May.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.05 in May 2019 from a revised -0.48 in the previous month and compared to market expectations of +0.10. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to +0.07 in May from -0.44 in April; and that of the personal consumption and housing category went up to -0.06 from -0.08. Additionally, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution, up slightly from -0.02 in April; while employment-related indicators contributed -0.06 to the CFNAI in May, down from +0.05 in the previous month.