美国 - 达拉斯联储制造业指数

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -1.3 in November 2019 from -5.1 in the previous month, above market consensus of -11.3. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016 (-2.4 vs 4.5 in October). Other measures of manufacturing activity were also negative in November: new orders (-3.0 vs -4.2); growth rate of orders (-9.3 vs -5.9); capacity utilization (-5.3 vs 3.6); and shipments (-4.5 vs 6.0). The company outlook index fell 10.9 points to -2.1; while the index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks moved up 5.0 points to 17.1. Labor market measures suggested employment levels were unchanged. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in November.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -5.1 in October 2019 from 1.5 in the previous month and well below market consensus of 1.4. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 9 points to 4.5, suggesting a moderation in output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in October: new orders (-11 points to -4.2), the first negative reading in three years; capacity utilization (-8.4 points to 3.6), reaching a three-year low; and shipments (-9 points to 6). Labor market measures suggested slower growth in employment and work hours this month. Expectations regarding future business conditions were more optimistic in October. The index of future general business activity returned to positive territory, rising 9 points to 2.4; and the index of future company outlook rose 13 points to 15.3, its highest level in six months.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to 1.5 in September 2019 from 2.7 in the previous month and compared with market consensus of -2.3. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 4 points to 13.9, suggesting output growth continued but at a slightly slower pace than in August. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slightly slower expansion in September: New orders (-2.2 points to 7.1); shipments (-2.9 points to 14.7); and capacity utilization (-3.7 points to 12.0). A bright spot this month was the growth rate of orders index, which edged up to a five-month high. Labor market measures suggested stronger growth in employment and work hours in September. Expectations regarding future business conditions were mixed, with the index of future general business activity slipping 8 points into negative territory and the index of future company outlook also falling 8 points.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas increased to 2.7 in August 2019 from -6.3 in the previous month and compared with market consensus of -3.0. It is the highest reading in five months, as the production index rose to 17.9 from 9.3 in July, the strongest in nearly a year. Also, the shipments index jumped to 17.6 from 10.2 and the capacity utilization index went up to 15.7 from 11.2, both hitting an 11-month high. Meanwhile, the growth rate of orders index slowed to 1.8 from 2.7. Labor market measures suggested slower growth in employment and work hours: the employment index remained positive but retreated 11 points to 5.5 and the hours worked fell to 4. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained positive, as the index of future general business activity posted a second consecutive positive reading but moved down 5 points to 1.4. and the future company outlook index was little changed at 10.4.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -6.3 in July 2019 from a three-year low of -12.1 in June and compared with market expectations of -5. The production index increased to 9.3 from 8.9 in June and the growth rate of orders index rebounded into positive territory, rising nine points to 2.7. Additionally, the shipments index jumped nine points to 10.2; and the capacity utilization index advanced to 11.2. Labor market measures suggested robust growth in employment and work hours: the employment index went up seven points to 16.0, and the hours worked index pushed further above average with a reading of 6.6. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions improved in July, as the index of future general business activity returned to positive territory, increasing nine points to 6.0 and the future company outlook index moved up six points to 9.1.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -12.1 in June 2019 from -5.3 in May and compared with market forecasts of -1. It was the lowest reading since June 2016, as the growth rate of orders index dropped 8 points to -6.7, its weakest reading in nearly three years and the shipments index decreased to a two-year low (1.7 vs 7.6). Meanwhile, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.3 to 8.9; the new orders index edged up to 3.7; and the capacity utilization index inched up to 9.6. Labor market measures suggested solid, but somewhat slower, growth in employment and work hours in June: the employment index declined from 11.6 to 8.8 and the hours worked index went down to 4.7. Looking ahead, the index of future general business activity decreased 12 points to -2.7, and the index of future company outlook fell 8 points but remained positive at 3.6.