Americans Head to the Polls Waiting for Stimulus

The US Presidential election on November 3rd 2020 will be one of the more atypical in the US history. It happens in the middle of a pandemic, with early voting surging, both by mail and in person. Anxiety and uncertainty about the results mount not only because the result may take too long to be known but because investors fear a contested result. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 11/3/2020 8:36:02 AM
According to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida, near 100 million Americans have already voted, and a rise in mail-in voting is raising concerns that it might take a lot of time to know the election results as officials process much more mail-in ballots than usual. President Trump recently threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots if they arrive after election day. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden has been leading the polls for a long time but four years ago polls proved to be wrong and Donald Trump won. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery. Yet, personal spending surged and was the main driver of a record 33.1% annualized growth in Q3, helped by checks and weekly unemployment benefits from the federal CARES Act. Indeed, many people are still unemployed as the economy only recovered nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. Democrats have been pushing a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Biden's campaign includes additional checks to families; forgiving a minimum of $10,000 per person of federal student loans; and increasing monthly Social Security checks by $200/month. Republicans proposed a package worth around $1.8 trillion stimulus although President Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion. Moreover, the new administration will have to deal with a pandemic far from being controlled while a vaccine for coronavirus is not ready yet. 






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03/11/2020 现值 前次数据 共识 预测
03:30 AM
AU
澳储行利率决策 0.1% 0.25% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 AM
TR
通货膨胀率(年) OCT 11.89% 11.75% 11.9% 11.5%
10:00 AM
DE
德意志联邦银行莫德勒演讲
11:00 AM
BR
巴西中央银行 Copom会议纪要
12:00 PM
MX
商业信心指数 OCT 41.5 40.7 ® 41
03:00 PM
US
工厂订单(月) SEP 1.1% 0.6% ® 1% 0.6%
04:00 PM
DE
德国央行巴尔茨演讲
06:00 PM
BR
贸易差额 OCT $5.5B $6.2B $6.1B $6B
06:00 PM
DE
德意志联邦银行莫德勒演讲
09:30 PM
US
API原油库存变化 OCT/30 -8.01M 4.577M 1.964M
10:00 PM
AU
Markit服务业 - 采购经理人指数 - 最终 OCT 53.7 50.8 53.8
11:50 PM
JP
日本央行货币政策会议纪要
US
总统选举
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
04/11/2020 现值 前次数据 共识 预测
12:30 AM
AU
零售(每月)最终 SEP -1.1% -4% -1.5% -1.5%
01:45 AM
CN
财新 服务业采购经理人指数 OCT 56.8 54.8 54
08:00 AM
ES
失业人数变化 OCT 49.6K -26.3K 65K
08:15 AM
ES
Markit服务业 - 采购经理人指数 OCT 41.4 42.4 40 40.6
08:45 AM
IT
HS - 马基特 - 服务 - 采购经理人指数 OCT 46.7 48.8 47 46.6
08:50 AM
FR
Markit服务业 - 采购经理人指数 - 最终 OCT 46.5 47.5 46.5 46.5
08:55 AM
DE
Markit服务业 - 采购经理人指数 - 最终 OCT 49.5 50.6 48.9 48.9
09:00 AM
EA
Markit服务业 - 采购经理人指数 - 最终 OCT 46.9 48 46.2 46.2
09:30 AM
GB
Markit / CIPS 英国服务 - 采购经理指数 - 最终 OCT 51.4 56.1 52.3 52.3
12:00 PM
BR
工业生产(月) SEP 2.6% 3.6% ® 2.2% 2.6%
01:15 PM
US
ADP就业人数变化 OCT 365K 753K ® 650K 590K
01:30 PM
CA
贸易差额 SEP C$-3.25B C$-3.21B ® C$-2.6B C$ -2.6B
01:30 PM
US
贸易差额 SEP $-63.9B $-67B ® $-63.8B $ -63.1B
02:45 PM
US
(终值)Markit综合 - 采购经理人指数 OCT 56.3 54.3 55.5
02:45 PM
US
Markit服务业 - 采购经理人指数 - 最终 OCT 56.9 54.6 56
03:00 PM
US
美国供应管理协会非制造业商业活动 OCT 61.2 63 62 60
03:00 PM
US
美国供应管理协会非制造业就业 OCT 50.1 51.8 52
03:00 PM
US
美国供应管理协会非制造业新订单 OCT 58.8 61.5 61
03:00 PM
US
美国供应管理协会非制造业采购经理人指数 OCT 56.6 57.8 57.5 57
03:00 PM
US
美国供应管理协会非制造业价格 OCT 63.9 59 58
03:30 PM
US
环评原油库存变化 OCT/30 -7.998M 4.32M 0.89M
03:30 PM
US
环评缓冲原油库存变化 OCT/30 0.936M -0.422M
03:30 PM
US
环评馏分油库存变化 OCT/30 -1.585M -4.491M -2.023M
03:30 PM
US
环评汽油库存变化 OCT/30 1.541M -0.892M -0.871M
EU
EcoFin Video Conference
05/11/2020 现值 前次数据 共识 预测
12:00 AM
US
汽车总销量 OCT 16.2M 16.3M
12:30 AM
AU
贸易差额 SEP A$5.630B A$2.618B ® A$2.1B
12:30 AM
JP
吉文 - 银行服务 - 采购经理指数 - 最终 OCT 47.7 46.9 46.6 46.6
04:00 AM
ID
国内生产总值增长率 (季度) Q3 5.05% -4.19% 5.34% 5%
04:00 AM
ID
国内生产总值增长率(年) Q3 -3.49% -5.32% -3% -3.2%
07:00 AM
DE
工厂订单(月) SEP 0.5% 4.9% ® 2% 1.5%
07:00 AM
GB
英国央行利率决定 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 AM
GB
英国央行货币政策委员会投票削减 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
英国央行货币政策委员会投票 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
英国央行货币政策委员会投票不变 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
07:00 AM
GB
英国央行量化宽松政策 £875B £745B £825B £845B
07:00 AM
GB
货币政策报告
07:00 AM
GB
货币政策委员会会议纪要
08:30 AM
DE
建筑业采购经理人指数 OCT 45.2 45.5 44.4
09:30 AM
GB
建筑业采购经理人指数 OCT 53.1 56.8 55 54.4
10:00 AM
EA
零售销售(月率环比) SEP -2% 4.2% ® -1% -1.4%
10:00 AM
EA
零售销售(年率同比) SEP 2.2% 4.4% ® 2.8% 2.5%
11:30 AM
ES
消费者信心指数 OCT 48.5 49.5 44.9
11:40 AM
EA
欧欧洲央行 委员 Guindos 演讲
12:00 PM
MX
消费者信心指数 OCT 37.6 36.3 ® 36.1
12:00 PM
GB
Sunak Statement on COVID Support
01:00 PM
BR
Markit服务业 - 采购经理人指数 OCT 52.3 50.4 51
01:30 PM
US
首次申请失业救济人数 OCT/31 751K 758K ® 732K 745K
01:30 PM
US
失业救济人数4周平均值 OCT/31 787K 791K ® 782K
01:30 PM
US
(初值)非农生产率 (季度) Q3 4.9% 10.6% ® 5.6% 5%
01:30 PM
US
(初值)单位劳动力成本 (季度) Q3 -8.9% 8.5% ® -11.5% -10%
03:00 PM
DE
德国央行魏德曼演讲
07:00 PM
US
美联储利率决策 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
07:30 PM
US
美联储新闻发布会
09:30 PM
AU
Ai集团服务指数 OCT 51.4 36.2 37
06/11/2020 现值 前次数据 共识 预测
12:30 AM
AU
澳洲联储货币政策声明
07:00 AM
DE
工业生产(月) SEP 1.6% 0.5% ® 2.7% 2.5%
07:45 AM
FR
贸易差额 SEP €-5.8B €-7.7B €-6.32B €-6.7B
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax房价指数(月) OCT 0.3% 1.5% ® 0.5% 0.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax房价指数(年) OCT 7.5% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3%
09:00 AM
IT
零售销售(月率环比) SEP -0.8% 8.2% -2.6%
12:00 PM
BR
通货膨胀率(年) OCT 3.92% 3.14% 3.9% 4%
01:30 PM
CA
就业人数变化 OCT 83.6K 378.2K 100K 110K
01:30 PM
CA
全职就业变动 OCT 69.1K 334K 40K
01:30 PM
CA
兼职就业变动 OCT 14.5K 44.2K ® 70K
01:30 PM
CA
参与率 OCT 65.2% 65% 65% 65.1%
01:30 PM
CA
失业率 OCT 8.9% 9% 8.8% 9%
01:30 PM
US
非农就业数据 OCT 638K 672K ® 600K 510K
01:30 PM
US
失业率 OCT 6.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7%
02:00 PM
CA
加拿大央行行长麦克莱姆讲话
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Schembri Speech
03:00 PM
CA
艾维采购经理人指数 OCT 54.5 54.3 51.5 52
03:00 PM
US
批发存货(每月) SEP 0.4% 0.5% ® -0.1% -0.1%
04:00 PM
RU
通货膨胀率(年) OCT 4% 3.7% 4% 3.8%
07/11/2020 现值 前次数据 共识 预测
03:00 AM
CN
贸易差额 OCT $58.44B $37B $46B $42B
03:00 AM
CN
出口(年) OCT 11.4% 9.9% 9.3% 9%
03:00 AM
CN
进口(年) OCT 4.7% 13.2% 9.5% 10.5%
08/11/2020 现值 前次数据 共识 预测
11:50 PM
JP
日本央行意见摘要





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